Thoughts on these World Cup bets would be appreciated

[Prof.Hinsley]

Ok, I don't bet futbol much, but tell me whatcha think:

2* Netherlands to win Group (-230) 4.6 to win 2

Just don't see how they don't win this group and stomp through it. I know it's a lot of juice, but really think it's worth it.

2* Winning Confederation- Conmebol (S. America) (+170) 2 to win 3.4

In my mind, I'll take Brazil and Argentina at these odds, I like them both to go far. If I'm not mistaken, Brazil is the only team to cross hemispheres and win the World Cup so it has happened before.

Comments welcome, really looking forward to the Cup!

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

ok here's my take...i love one(cuz i already played it)...and don't agree with the other...first up..i am totally biased being a dutch follower but u r right on...they will go 3-0 into the knockout stage..and will score plenty....i also do believe they will give up a few..i am not stupid to think it will be a cakewalk....there defense is old and goal keeping is shaky....however, they have one of, if not the best offensive attacks in the world....but where the hell did u get those odds of -230...i laid -155 a week ago....and have seen -150 at the greek this afternoon and -170 at pinny today also....the other one..ehh....i mean brazil could win...but i am not fond of them...argentina might have the greatest semblance of forwards on one squad i have ever seen..but u can't play them all at one time and their coach has moved from coke to acid..because i can't believe diego is concious to his surroundings anymore....again this is just another opinion u may be looking 4...but i would think one of the european teams is more worthy than south america...i don't know the odds fer europe but i will guess that they are favored?...again, just 2 cents u may have been looking 4...cheers

 

[Prof.Hinsley]

Wow! Crazy how different the juice is! I use a local (I stick with one in particular but have access to another and checked both lines) and each of them had the -230 for Netherlands to win their group. If I could have got it at -170 I probably would have unloaded on it! You're right, Europe is favored to win their group. These are the lines I have, but then again, my lines may be a bit screwy:

8151 UEFA (Europe) -250
8152 Conmebol (South America) +170
8153 CAF (Africa) +800
8154 Any Other +1500


Another one here you may be interested in, and I may a small fun wager on it is group to win the World Cup:

8141 Group A +900
8142 Group B +450
8143 Group C +400
8144 Group D +700
8145 Group E +700
8146 Group F +900
8147 Group G +200
8148 Group H +200

 

[Prof.Hinsley]

Was thinking Group G

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

if those are the odds u r getting fer the groups...what are the odds to win the cup at...i understand u are getting 4 teams from each group....but let's be honest..there are only a handful of teams in my opinion that have a shot to win...so maybe just taking the full odds (ie. brazil at 9-2) is a better route...again, just my 2 cents...and brudda man...u might wanna look into a new local...you are gettin robbed on juice and serious value....here's a look at pinny odds on that bet u have above...europe at 5-9...s.america...2-1....africa 17-1....field 28-1....those are pretty different #'s...but hey...if u don't mind and don't bet sick amts. of $ and are kool with yer local....good on ya....it's all good...cheers on yer bets....

 

[jwblue]

I am not sure why people would put money on Argentina. They barely qualified for this tournament.

Things are not likely to change overnight.

 

[mclosin]

brazil could very easily win, id much rather back them straight then throw argentina in with them.

im wondering if you could do an exacta with netherlands/cameroon netherlands/denmark. i doubt it comes netherlands/japan. probably a better price that way.

based on what i have seen recently, dutch should win that group easily though.

 

[Lakershomer]

I agree with most of the posters so far......
I really like the Dutch to win that group and have put a lot on them to win the group.......
I'm not so sure about the other bet, because there are so many more Euro teams that could win than South American.

 

[Martinga]

You want a good thought? stay out of betting on who's going to win it. We all know a good 3-5 teams have a VERY good chance of winning it. Among them Brazil, Spain, Argentina (yes, you can hate all you want, but if the team manages to click, they are going to be VERY hard to beat), and others like Netherlands, England, Germany.
The better bet and more reasonable value is looking at individual games.
We haven't even seen 1 official world cup match yet. I'd wait for the first round of games if you wanna make a more accurate decision....

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

very true martinga on all accounts...but we have seen qualifying and friendlies...and you can argue any which way u want...but those friendlies and the qualifiers do go quite a ways in one determining futures on certain countries probabilities of winning goups and perhaps the cup itself...cheers

 

[Prof.Hinsley]

Thats probably sound advice Martinga. Do you sit back and not throw down anything until you see a team play in an official game then?

Cocktails: Yeah, I'm cool with the book. I don't hassle him, he doesn't hassle me. But still, like you said, those lines are really streching. Just for curiosity's sake, I'll let ya know if they move come WC time.

Lakers: Europe is favored but I'm getting a terrible price on it, in my opinion, so I'm going with the S. American teams. When America was playing at their absolute BEST after they beat world number 1 Spain then lost to world number 2 Brazil, the Brazillians showed what they could do when they tried. The first half I actually thought USA might win the game. Then Brazil turned it up to another notch that I haven't really seen from any other team. They are fast, strong and have insane talent. Usually their weak point is at goal, but they have a decent goalie this year.

Think I will be looking at individual games. Any stick out to to anyone right now? I'm going to go through them and maybe discuss some in here. And as always, opinions are great.

 

[Lakershomer]

Prof: I agree the odds are extremely high. I also really like Brazil to win this world cup, but when you look at the chances of a winner coming from South America you have way less possible winners than Europe. With South America, you are putting all your money on two teams, Argentina and Brazil, while Europe has a laundry list of teams that could win this cup such as Spain,Netharlands, and England. Unless you strongly feel that Brazil or Argentina will take this world cup, I'd leave that prop alone. Then again, no European winner on non Euro soil.

 

[Preussen]

... Then again, no European winner on non Euro soil.

On the other hand, European teams have won 9 of 10 in Europe, and time zone and current climate in South Africa are very European.

 

[carparts1000]

i think brazil will take it. hope they don't though.